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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 16

Detroit Lions 10 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(:06) 39-J.Bates 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.20 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 16, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.22 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP