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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
Sunday 2024-12-22 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🥶 Cold Spread -7.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

DET
77.8%
CHI
22.2%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.169 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to DET: Caleb Williams (CHI) -0.054 vs Jared Goff (DET) +0.392 EPA/dropback
  • CHI defense: +0.124 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.108 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 28
–
CHI 17
Projected margin: DET by 11 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

DET

David Montgomery RB Out Knee
Jalen Reeves-Maybin LB Out Neck
Ifeatu Melifonwu S Questionable Hand
Brian Branch S Questionable Calf
Graham Glasgow G Questionable Knee

CHI

Ryan Bates G Out Concussion
Travis Homer RB Doubtful Hamstring
Jaylon Johnson CB Questionable Illness
Braxton Jones T Questionable Concussion
Gervon Dexter DT Questionable Knee
Teven Jenkins G Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 34
–
CHI 17

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:39 FG DET (9:39) 39-J.Bates 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 3 – CHI 0
  • Q1 05:37 TD DET (5:37) 26-J.Gibbs left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 9 – CHI 0
  • Q1 00:06 FG DET (:06) 39-J.Bates 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 13 – CHI 0
  • Q2 12:59 TD DET (12:59) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 9-Ja.Williams for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 19 – CHI 0
  • Q2 06:35 TD CHI (6:35) 63-C.Glaser reported in as eligible. 18-C.Williams pass short left to 85-C.Kmet for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 20 – CHI 6
  • Q2 01:04 TD DET (1:04) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 26 – CHI 7
  • Q2 00:46 TD CHI (:46) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 13-K.Allen for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 27 – CHI 13
  • Q3 12:24 TD DET (12:24) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 87-S.LaPorta for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 33 – CHI 14
  • Q3 06:07 FG CHI (6:07) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. DET 34 – CHI 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 9 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (14:00) 19-T.Taylor punts 49 yards to DET 24, Center-46-S.Daly. 85-T.Kennedy to DET 33 for 9 yards (46-S.Daly).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 3 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 96%

    (9:39) 39-J.Bates 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 94%

    (:06) 39-J.Bates 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 32%

    (13:39) 19-T.Taylor punts 42 yards to DET 7, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 3 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 77%

    (9:18) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 15-R.Odunze to DET 18 for 13 yards (32-B.Branch). CHI-70-B.Jones was injured during the play.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 42%

    (9:09) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep right to 15-R.Odunze to DET 15 for 30 yards (21-A.Robertson).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 7 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (6:07) 8-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 3 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 96%

    (14:54) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 14-A.St. Brown (49-T.Edmunds).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 7 at the 69
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 39%

    (11:59) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 13-K.Allen to CHI 41 for 10 yards (0-T.Arnold).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 6 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (5:45) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to CHI 26, Center-49-H.Hatten. 39-J.Blackwell to CHI 35 for 9 yards (49-H.Hatten).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 11 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 97%

    (2:36) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left to 2-D.Moore [32-B.Branch].