Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 49

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 13

(13:39) 19-T.Taylor punts 42 yards to DET 7, Center-46-S.Daly, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.52 EP
69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP

KICK -1.13 EP

32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
68% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model