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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 13

Detroit Lions 34 – Chicago Bears 17

What Actually Happened

(14:54) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 14-A.St. Brown (49-T.Edmunds).

The Three Options

GO +2.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.33 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 13, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 23, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model