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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 12

Detroit Lions 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(9:39) 39-J.Bates 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +2.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.18 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 22, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP