Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 73

Detroit Lions 34 – Chicago Bears 17

(5:45) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to CHI 26, Center-49-H.Hatten. 39-J.Blackwell to CHI 35 for 9 yards (49-H.Hatten).

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.45 EP
51% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 73, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model