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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 26

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(:24) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.64 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 26, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 36, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model