Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- HOU offense: -0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
- KC offense: +0.067 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
- C.J. Stroud (HOU): -0.034 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- HOU defense: -0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 16
HOU
KC
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 06:39 TD KC (6:39) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – KC 6
- Q1 03:12 FG HOU (3:12) 15-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 3 – KC 7
- Q2 10:16 TD HOU (10:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 86-D.Schultz for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-G.Karlaftis]. HOU 9 – KC 7
- Q2 04:42 TD KC (4:42) 29-K.Hunt right guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 10 – KC 13
- Q2 00:24 FG KC (:24) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. HOU 10 – KC 17
- Q3 11:48 TD HOU (11:48) 7-C.Stroud pass deep left to 3-T.Dell for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU-3-T.Dell was injured during the play. HOU 16 – KC 17
- Q3 02:46 TD KC (2:46) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-X.Worthy for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 16 – KC 23
- Q4 11:56 FG HOU (11:56) 15-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. HOU 19 – KC 24
- Q4 05:22 FG KC (5:22) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. HOU 19 – KC 27
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 29Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 81%
(8:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 5-M.Brown to HOU 17 for 12 yards (21-C.Bullock) [51-W.Anderson].
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Q1 HOU 4th & 10 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%
(3:12) 15-K.Fairbairn 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
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Q1 KC 4th & 13 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(1:22) 14-M.Araiza punts 49 yards to HOU 18, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.
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Q2 KC 4th & 12 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 86%
(:24) 7-H.Butker 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
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Q3 KC 4th & 10 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(13:26) 14-M.Araiza punts 41 yards to HOU 38, Center-41-J.Winchester. 3-T.Dell to 50 for 12 yards (83-N.Gray).
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Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 51Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71% p(FG) 30%
(9:57) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle to KC 49 for no gain (97-M.Edwards).
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Q3 HOU 4th & 9 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 37%
(8:34) 6-T.Townsend punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback. ** Injury Update: KC-83-N.Gray has returned to the game.
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Q4 HOU 4th & 20 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 20% p(FG) 92%
(11:56) 15-K.Fairbairn 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
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Q4 KC 4th & 5 at the 9Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EPp(convert) 39% p(FG) 97%
(5:22) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.