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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 51

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Houston Texans 16

What Actually Happened

(9:57) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle to KC 49 for no gain (97-M.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.89 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 51, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.12 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model