Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 48

Houston Texans 16 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

(8:34) 6-T.Townsend punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback. ** Injury Update: KC-83-N.Gray has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.21 EP
66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 48, worth -2.83 EP

KICK -1.31 EP

37% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
63% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model