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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 9

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – Houston Texans 19

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 7-H.Butker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.69 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 9, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP