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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 29

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(8:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 5-M.Brown to HOU 17 for 12 yards (21-C.Bullock) [51-W.Anderson].

The Three Options

GO +2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.46 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 29, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 39, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model