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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 31

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(10:33) 2-D.Carlson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.41 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 31, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 41, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model