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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Antonio Pierce
Sunday 2024-12-22 · 16:25 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

JAX
45.8%
LV
54.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.126 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • JAX defense: +0.128 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LV defense: +0.044 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • QB edge to LV: Aidan O'Connell (LV) -0.000 vs Mac Jones (JAX) -0.089 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

JAX 22
–
LV 23
Projected margin: LV by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

JAX

No players on the report.

LV

Jordan Meredith G Doubtful Ankle
Nate Hobbs CB Questionable Illness
Kana'i Mauga LB Questionable Illness
Sam Webb CB Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 14
–
LV 19

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:35 TD JAX (1:35) 73-B.Hance reported in as eligible. 4-T.Bigsby up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – LV 0
  • Q2 14:10 TD LV (14:10) 77-T.Munford reported in as eligible. 22-A.Mattison left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 7 – LV 6
  • Q2 10:33 FG LV (10:33) 2-D.Carlson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. JAX 7 – LV 10
  • Q2 04:00 FG LV (4:00) 2-D.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. JAX 7 – LV 13
  • Q3 01:03 TD JAX (1:03) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep left to 7-B.Thomas for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 13 – LV 13
  • Q4 11:30 TD LV (11:30) 8-A.Abdullah right guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 14 – LV 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:37) 73-B.Hance reported in as eligible. 4-T.Bigsby right guard to JAX 49 for 10 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao; 18-J.Jones).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 7 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 41%

    (11:53) 9-L.Cooke punts 45 yards to LV 3, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 10 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 49%

    (7:13) 9-L.Cooke punts 31 yards to LV 14, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 20 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (4:19) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to JAX 30, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at LV 44 for 26 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). PENALTY on LV-53-A.Gainer, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LV 44.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 11 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:50) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to LV 27, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 8-A.Abdullah to LV 36 for 9 yards (57-C.Johnson; 20-D.Thomas).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 6 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 80%

    (10:33) 2-D.Carlson 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 13 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:14) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to LV 18, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 8-A.Abdullah pushed ob at LV 37 for 19 yards (57-C.Johnson).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 5 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 93%

    (4:00) 2-D.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 6 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 59%

    (2:52) 6-A.Cole punts 31 yards to JAX 10, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (14:07) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to JAX 17, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Duvernay ran ob at JAX 25 for 8 yards (56-A.Burney; 20-I.Pola-Mao).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 16 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (8:44) 9-L.Cooke punts 36 yards to LV 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 14 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (5:20) 6-A.Cole punts 55 yards to JAX 14, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Duvernay MUFFS catch, and recovers at JAX 9.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 17 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:34) 9-L.Cooke punts 20 yards to JAX 33, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 5 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 84%

    (2:22) 2-D.Carlson 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (9:27) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to LV 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 48 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 41%

    (2:52) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to JAX 7, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 11 at the 62 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 2-D.Johnson to JAX 46 for 8 yards (7-T.Moehrig).