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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 17 at the 87

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(3:34) 9-L.Cooke punts 20 yards to JAX 33, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.31 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 87, worth -5.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 45, worth -2.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model