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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 28

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(2:22) 2-D.Carlson 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.47 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 28, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 38, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model