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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 64

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 19

What Actually Happened

(9:27) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to LV 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.92 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 64, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 22, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model