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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 48

Las Vegas Raiders 19 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(2:52) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to JAX 7, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 12-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.48 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 48, worth -1.78 EP
KICK -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model