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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 62

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 19

What Actually Happened

(1:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 2-D.Johnson to JAX 46 for 8 yards (7-T.Moehrig).

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +1.41 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 62, worth -2.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.54 EP