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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 45

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:13) 9-L.Cooke punts 31 yards to LV 14, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.51 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 45, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -0.90 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model