Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 20 at the 84

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(4:19) 6-A.Cole punts 54 yards to JAX 30, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 12-D.Duvernay pushed ob at LV 44 for 26 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao). PENALTY on LV-53-A.Gainer, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LV 44.

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.20 EP
74% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 84, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model