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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 34

New York Jets 6 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(1:14) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 10-A.Lazard to LA 23 for 11 yards (37-Q.Lake). Penalty on LA-39-J.McCollough, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.66 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 34, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
  • 70% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 44, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model