Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- LA offense: +0.110 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- NYJ defense: +0.136 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- LA defense: +0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
- LA on 3 more days rest than NYJ
- NYJ offense: +0.039 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 16
LA
No players on the report.
NYJ
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 00:30 TD NYJ (:30) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-D.Adams for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – NYJ 6
- Q2 06:25 TD LA (6:25) 23-K.Williams up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – NYJ 6
- Q2 00:03 FG NYJ (:03) 18-A.Carlson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead. LA 6 – NYJ 9
- Q4 12:47 FG LA (12:47) 16-J.Karty 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 9 – NYJ 9
- Q4 10:17 TD LA (10:17) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 15 – NYJ 9
- Q4 05:22 FG LA (5:22) 16-J.Karty 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 19 – NYJ 9
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LA 4th & 7 at the 37Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 63%
(8:55) 42-E.Evans punts 36 yards to NYJ 1, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-35-J.Hummel.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 20Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57% p(FG) 92%
(1:50) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at LA 12 for 8 yards (39-J.McCollough).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 67Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 73%
(8:01) (Shotgun) 20-B.Hall up the middle to NYJ 33 for no gain (48-O.Speights).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 34Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 70%
(1:14) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 10-A.Lazard to LA 23 for 11 yards (37-Q.Lake). Penalty on LA-39-J.McCollough, Defensive Offside, declined.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 3Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%
(:03) 18-A.Carlson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 13Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 96%
(5:19) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Adams (4-A.Witherspoon).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LA 4th & 13 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 92%
(12:47) 16-J.Karty 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 53Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 23%
(8:27) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep middle to 83-T.Conklin (24-D.Williams).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LA 4th & 18 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 83%
(5:22) 16-J.Karty 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 31 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 76%
(2:02) 18-A.Carlson 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-6-T.Morstead.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 56 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(1:44) 42-E.Evans punts 42 yards to NYJ 14, Center-47-A.Ward. 82-X.Gipson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LA-88-J.Whittington at NYJ 13.
See the full breakdown →
