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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 13

New York Jets 9 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(5:19) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Adams (4-A.Witherspoon).

The Three Options

GO +2.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.43 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 13, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 23, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model