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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 20

Los Angeles Rams 6 – New York Jets 9

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 16-J.Karty 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.49 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 20, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 30, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model