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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 53

New York Jets 9 – Los Angeles Rams 16

What Actually Happened

(8:27) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep middle to 83-T.Conklin (24-D.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.48 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 53, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.55 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 15, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model