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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 37

Los Angeles Rams 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(8:55) 42-E.Evans punts 36 yards to NYJ 1, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-35-J.Hummel.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.80 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 37, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -0.28 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -2.95 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP