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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 56

Los Angeles Rams 19 – New York Jets 9

What Actually Happened

(1:44) 42-E.Evans punts 42 yards to NYJ 14, Center-47-A.Ward. 82-X.Gipson MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by LA-88-J.Whittington at NYJ 13.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +0.59 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 56, worth -2.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 17, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model