Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 16 at the 76

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(12:13) 17-R.Wright punts 54 yards to SEA 22, Center-42-A.DePaola. 1-J.Darden pushed ob at SEA 40 for 18 yards (15-D.Turner). PENALTY on SEA-29-J.Jobe, Illegal Blindside Block, 12 yards, enforced at SEA 24.

The Three Options

GO -2.66 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.58 EP
70% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 76, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model