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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
@
SEA Home

Seattle Seahawks

HC Mike Macdonald
Sunday 2024-12-22 · 16:05 Lumen Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread -2.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

MIN
53.0%
SEA
47.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN offense: +0.115 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.065 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • SEA offense: -0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 24
–
SEA 22
Projected margin: MIN by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

MIN

Fabian Moreau CB Out Hip
Jalen Redmond DT Out Concussion
C.J. Ham FB Questionable Ankle
Harrison Smith S Questionable Foot

SEA

Trevis Gipson LB Out Ankle
Brady Russell TE Out Foot
K'Von Wallace S Out Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 27
–
SEA 24

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:09 TD MIN (8:09) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 3-J.Addison for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – SEA 0
  • Q2 13:41 TD SEA (13:41) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 7 – SEA 6
  • Q2 05:54 TD MIN (5:54) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN-18-J.Jefferson, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. MIN 13 – SEA 7
  • Q2 03:38 FG MIN (3:38) 16-W.Reichard 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN 17 – SEA 7
  • Q2 00:24 TD SEA (:24) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 17 – SEA 13
  • Q3 10:41 FG SEA (10:41) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. MIN 17 – SEA 17
  • Q3 06:29 FG MIN (6:29) 16-W.Reichard 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN 20 – SEA 17
  • Q4 04:26 TD SEA (4:26) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 88-A.Barner for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 20 – SEA 23
  • Q4 03:58 TD MIN (3:58) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-D.Jones]. MIN 26 – SEA 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 57%

    (12:16) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 87-T.Hockenson ran ob at SEA 32 for 8 yards.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 7 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:16) 4-M.Dickson punts 56 yards to MIN 9, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (2:46) 17-R.Wright punts 51 yards to SEA 9, Center-42-A.DePaola. 1-J.Darden to SEA 13 for 4 yards (11-T.Sherfield).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 16 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:13) 17-R.Wright punts 54 yards to SEA 22, Center-42-A.DePaola. 1-J.Darden pushed ob at SEA 40 for 18 yards (15-D.Turner). PENALTY on SEA-29-J.Jobe, Illegal Blindside Block, 12 yards, enforced at SEA 24.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.38 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (10:37) 4-M.Dickson punts 46 yards to MIN 33, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 13 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 72%

    (3:38) 16-W.Reichard 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 8 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:04) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to MIN 29, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 3 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (1:37) 17-R.Wright punts 63 yards to SEA 1, Center-42-A.DePaola. 1-J.Darden to SEA 12 for 11 yards (26-Th.Jackson).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 8 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 87%

    (10:41) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 7 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 80%

    (6:29) 16-W.Reichard 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (4:52) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to MIN 16, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 9 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 42%

    (2:05) 17-R.Wright punts 38 yards to SEA 8, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (14:55) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 20-J.Love. 20-J.Love up the middle to SEA 48 for 2 yards (44-J.Metellus; 91-P.Jones).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 17 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (12:30) 4-M.Dickson punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-41-C.Stoll, Touchback.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (10:51) 17-R.Wright punts 56 yards to SEA 17, Center-42-A.DePaola. 1-J.Darden ran ob at SEA 32 for 15 yards (32-T.Chandler).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 15 at the 42 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 52%

    (2:00) 5-J.Myers 60 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 15 at the 55 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:01) 17-R.Wright punts 38 yards to SEA 17, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.