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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 13 at the 34

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(3:38) 16-W.Reichard 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.09 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 34, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 44, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model