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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 64

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(1:37) 17-R.Wright punts 63 yards to SEA 1, Center-42-A.DePaola. 1-J.Darden to SEA 12 for 11 yards (26-Th.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.81 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 64, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 22, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP