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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 25

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(10:41) 5-J.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.02 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 35, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model