4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 67

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(4:52) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to MIN 16, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.14 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 25, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model