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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 46

Minnesota Vikings 20 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(2:05) 17-R.Wright punts 38 yards to SEA 8, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.54 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 46, worth -2.64 EP
KICK -1.00 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 13, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model