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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 54

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(14:55) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 20-J.Love. 20-J.Love up the middle to SEA 48 for 2 yards (44-J.Metellus; 91-P.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.60 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 54, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 16, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model