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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 42

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Minnesota Vikings 27

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 5-J.Myers 60 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.31 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 42, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model