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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 65

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(6:16) 4-M.Dickson punts 56 yards to MIN 9, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.53 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 65, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT +0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 23, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model