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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 34

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(10:41) 37-R.Patterson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.44 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 34, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model