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New York Giants

2-13 HC Brian Daboll
@
ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

8-7 HC Raheem Morris
Sunday 2024-12-22 · 13:00 ET Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 9.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

NYG
33.8%
ATL
66.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.133 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Tommy DeVito (NYG): -0.193 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ATL offense: -0.025 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.127 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NYG 19 12–26
–
ATL 24 17–31
Projected margin: ATL by 5 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 16

NYG

Patrick Johnson LB Out Knee
Bobby Okereke LB Out Back
Aaron Stinnie G Out Concussion
Greg Stroman CB Doubtful Shoulder
Dyontae Johnson LB Questionable Ankle
Austin Schlottmann C Questionable Fibula
Deonte Banks CB Questionable Rib
Brian Burns LB Questionable Ankle
Tyrone Tracy RB Questionable Ankle

ATL

Casey Washington WR Out Concussion
Lorenzo Carter LB Questionable Groin
KhaDarel Hodge WR Questionable Ribs

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 7
–
ATL 34

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 15:00 TD NYG (15:00) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short left to 29-T.Tracy for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – ATL 0
  • Q2 10:41 FG ATL (10:41) 37-R.Patterson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. NYG 7 – ATL 3
  • Q2 08:05 TD ATL (8:05) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short left intended for 17-W.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates [55-K.Elliss] at ATL 45. 3-J.Bates for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-1-M.Nabers, Illegal Shift, declined. NYG 7 – ATL 9
  • Q2 01:48 TD ATL (1:48) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – ATL 16
  • Q3 14:27 TD ATL (14:27) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short middle intended for 1-M.Nabers INTERCEPTED by 15-M.Judon (96-Z.Harrison) at NYG 27. 15-M.Judon for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – ATL 23
  • Q3 07:19 TD ATL (7:19) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – ATL 30
  • Q4 10:50 FG ATL (10:50) 37-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. NYG 7 – ATL 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 2 at the 25
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 88%

    (11:48) 37-R.Patterson 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYG 4th & 4 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (10:52) 6-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to ATL 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ATL 4th & 4 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (8:15) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to NYG 24, Center-49-L.McCullough. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 30 for 6 yards (35-N.Brooks).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 9 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 75%

    (10:41) 37-R.Patterson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYG 4th & 11 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:16) 6-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to ATL 14, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYG 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:42) 6-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to ATL 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 26-A.Williams to ATL 31 for 6 yards (24-D.Belton; 59-C.Kreiter).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYG 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (5:58) 6-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to ATL 13, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 7 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 94%

    (10:50) 37-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYG 4th & 16 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (7:32) 6-J.Gillan punts 21 yards to ATL 39, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-47-T.Summers.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 29%

    (5:34) 13-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to NYG 11, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette.

    See the full breakdown →