Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NYG offense: -0.133 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- Tommy DeVito (NYG): -0.193 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- ATL defense: +0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
- NYG defense: +0.127 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 16
NYG
ATL
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 15:00 TD NYG (15:00) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short left to 29-T.Tracy for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – ATL 0
- Q2 10:41 FG ATL (10:41) 37-R.Patterson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. NYG 7 – ATL 3
- Q2 08:05 TD ATL (8:05) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short left intended for 17-W.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates [55-K.Elliss] at ATL 45. 3-J.Bates for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NYG-1-M.Nabers, Illegal Shift, declined. NYG 7 – ATL 9
- Q2 01:48 TD ATL (1:48) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – ATL 16
- Q3 14:27 TD ATL (14:27) (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short middle intended for 1-M.Nabers INTERCEPTED by 15-M.Judon (96-Z.Harrison) at NYG 27. 15-M.Judon for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – ATL 23
- Q3 07:19 TD ATL (7:19) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – ATL 30
- Q4 10:50 FG ATL (10:50) 37-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. NYG 7 – ATL 34
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 ATL 4th & 2 at the 25Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EPp(convert) 58% p(FG) 88%
(11:48) 37-R.Patterson 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
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Q1 NYG 4th & 4 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(10:52) 6-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to ATL 10, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.
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Q1 ATL 4th & 4 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52%
(8:15) 13-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to NYG 24, Center-49-L.McCullough. 87-I.Smith-Marsette to NYG 30 for 6 yards (35-N.Brooks).
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Q2 ATL 4th & 9 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 75%
(10:41) 37-R.Patterson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
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Q2 NYG 4th & 11 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(5:16) 6-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to ATL 14, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.
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Q3 NYG 4th & 6 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(13:42) 6-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to ATL 25, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 26-A.Williams to ATL 31 for 6 yards (24-D.Belton; 59-C.Kreiter).
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Q3 NYG 4th & 4 at the 64Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(5:58) 6-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to ATL 13, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 7 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 94%
(10:50) 37-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
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Q4 NYG 4th & 16 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(7:32) 6-J.Gillan punts 21 yards to ATL 39, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-47-T.Summers.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 53Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EPp(convert) 61% p(FG) 29%
(5:34) 13-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to NYG 11, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 87-I.Smith-Marsette.