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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 25

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(11:48) 37-R.Patterson 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.76 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 25, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 35, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT +0.28 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP