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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 16 at the 60

New York Giants 7 – Atlanta Falcons 34

What Actually Happened

(7:32) 6-J.Gillan punts 21 yards to ATL 39, Center-59-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-47-T.Summers.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.81 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 60, worth -3.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 19, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model