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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 58

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 11-J.Stout punts 14 yards to PIT 44, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.13 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model