Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- BAL offense: +0.219 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- Lamar Jackson (BAL): +0.442 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- PIT offense: -0.021 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 16
PIT
BAL
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 05:57 TD BAL (5:57) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 80-I.Likely for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – BAL 6
- Q2 15:00 TD PIT (15:00) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 81-M.Pruitt for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – BAL 7
- Q2 07:33 TD BAL (7:33) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 7-R.Bateman for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 7 – BAL 13
- Q2 01:48 FG BAL (1:48) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. PIT 7 – BAL 17
- Q2 00:05 FG PIT (:05) 9-C.Boswell 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. PIT 10 – BAL 17
- Q3 05:19 TD PIT (5:19) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 84-C.Patterson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 16 – BAL 17
- Q3 01:53 TD BAL (1:53) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 17 – BAL 23
- Q4 13:15 TD BAL (13:15) 3-R.Wilson pass short right intended for 81-M.Pruitt INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Humphrey [90-D.Ojabo] at PIT 37. 44-M.Humphrey for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 17 – BAL 30
- Q4 03:14 FG BAL (3:14) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. PIT 17 – BAL 34
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 BAL 4th & 19 at the 42Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 44%
(11:01) 11-J.Stout punts 39 yards to PIT 3, impetus ends at PIT 1, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-81-D.Walker.
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Q1 PIT 4th & 2 at the 89Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EPp(convert) 64%
(9:17) 8-C.Waitman punts 58 yards to BAL 31, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 35-D.King to BAL 47 for 16 yards (42-J.Pierre). FUMBLES (42-J.Pierre), recovered by BAL-49-C.Board at PIT 41.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 11 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(13:38) 11-J.Stout punts 14 yards to PIT 44, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.
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Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(6:03) 8-C.Waitman punts 42 yards to BAL 28, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 35-D.King.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 8 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 68%
(1:48) 9-J.Tucker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
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Q3 PIT 4th & 4 at the 64Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 50%
(13:58) 8-C.Waitman punts 56 yards to BAL 8, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-49-J.Moon.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 2 at the 62Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EPp(convert) 65%
(9:59) 11-J.Stout punts 50 yards to PIT 12, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 45Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 36%
(15:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep middle to 19-C.Austin (14-K.Hamilton).
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Q4 PIT 4th & 12 at the 50Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 24%
(9:26) 8-C.Waitman punts 42 yards to BAL 8, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 35-D.King.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 6 late-gameChose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.83 EPp(convert) 68% p(FG) 98%
(3:14) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 13 at the 63 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(1:52) 8-C.Waitman punts 49 yards to BAL 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 35-D.King MUFFS catch, recovered by BAL-54-K.Welch at BAL 15.