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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 64

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(13:58) 8-C.Waitman punts 56 yards to BAL 8, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-49-J.Moon.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.09 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 64, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 22, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP