4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 19 at the 42

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:01) 11-J.Stout punts 39 yards to PIT 3, impetus ends at PIT 1, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-81-D.Walker.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.72 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -0.49 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model