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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 45

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep middle to 19-C.Austin (14-K.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.31 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 45, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -1.20 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model