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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 61

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to MIA 10, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 83-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.83 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 61, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 20, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP