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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
Sunday 2024-12-22 · 16:25 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

SF
35.6%
MIA
64.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: +0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • SF offense: -0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • MIA defense: +0.032 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • SF on 3 more days rest than MIA
  • QB edge to MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.148 vs Brock Purdy (SF) +0.141 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

SF 21
–
MIA 25
Projected margin: MIA by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

SF

Isaac Guerendo RB Out Foot
Trent Williams T Out Ankle
Robert Beal DE Questionable Ankle
Nick Bosa DE Questionable Hip
Dre Greenlaw LB Questionable Achilles

MIA

Blake Ferguson LS Out Illness
D'Wayne Eskridge WR Doubtful Knee
Jaylen Waddle WR Doubtful Knee
Cameron Goode LB Questionable Knee
Kendall Lamm T Questionable Back
Terron Armstead T Questionable Knee
Bradley Chubb LB Questionable Knee
Tyreek Hill WR Questionable Wrist

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 17
–
MIA 29

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:34 FG MIA (3:34) 7-J.Sanders 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey. SF 0 – MIA 3
  • Q2 14:22 TD SF (14:22) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 1-D.Samuel for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – MIA 3
  • Q2 09:44 FG MIA (9:44) 7-J.Sanders 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey. SF 7 – MIA 6
  • Q2 03:22 TD MIA (3:22) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 10-T.Hill for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – MIA 12
  • Q2 00:50 FG SF (:50) 4-J.Moody 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell. SF 10 – MIA 13
  • Q3 11:01 FG MIA (11:01) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey. SF 10 – MIA 16
  • Q3 01:11 FG MIA (1:11) 7-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey. SF 10 – MIA 19
  • Q4 12:05 TD SF (12:05) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 82-E.Saubert for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 16 – MIA 19
  • Q4 02:13 FG MIA (2:13) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey. SF 17 – MIA 22
  • Q4 01:44 TD MIA (1:44) 28-D.Achane right tackle for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 17 – MIA 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:38) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to MIA 10, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 83-M.Washington.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 9 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:47) 16-J.Bailey punts 58 yards to SF 20, Center-47-J.McQuaide. 19-J.Cowing to SF 28 for 8 yards (89-J.Hill).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 17 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (7:40) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to MIA 23, Center-46-T.Pepper. 83-M.Washington to MIA 30 for 7 yards (53-D.Winters).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 9 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 84%

    (3:34) 7-J.Sanders 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 13 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 91%

    (9:44) 7-J.Sanders 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 19 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (8:03) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to MIA 34, Center-46-T.Pepper. 83-M.Washington to MIA 43 for 9 yards (82-E.Saubert). PENALTY on MIA-32-P.McMorris, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 42.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (:50) 4-J.Moody 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 6 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 63%

    (11:01) 7-J.Sanders 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 13 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 88%

    (5:56) 4-J.Moody 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-40-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.71 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 95%

    (1:11) 7-J.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 8 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 26%

    (9:38) 16-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to SF 10, Center-47-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 19-J.Cowing.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (6:45) 40-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to MIA 24, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds. PENALTY on SF-22-I.Yiadom, Illegal Substitution, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 24.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 77%

    (2:13) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 18 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.31 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 93%

    (:13) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short right to 32-P.Taylor (8-J.Holland).