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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 20

Miami Dolphins 3 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 7-J.Sanders 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.50 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model